Brazil bought Argentine goods worth US$9.789 billion between January and September 2026, 12.7% of all the country's exports, and remained its main destination, according to the September trade report of [Indec](https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/ica_10_263F42E3F39F.pdf), Argentina's statistics institute. Brazil supplied 21.4% of Argentina's imports. Lula da Silva's re-election on Sunday, October 25, secures four more years of a government with which President Javier Milei has had a tense relationship.
Lula won the runoff with 51.79% against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the Superior Electoral Court (see the results by state). These are the figures of trade between Argentina and Brazil, what is sold and bought, and why the result matters for Argentina's economy.
Trade between Argentina and Brazil in 2026
| Indicator (January to September 2026) | Value |
|---|---|
| Argentine exports to Brazil | US$9.789 billion |
| Brazil's share of total exports | 12.7% (top destination) |
| Brazil's share of total imports | 21.4% |
| Imports from Brazil (estimate) | About US$12 billion |
| Balance with Brazil (estimate) | Deficit of about US$2.2 billion |
| Exports to Mercosur | US$13.471 billion (+10.7% year on year) |
| Imports from Mercosur | US$16.114 billion (−7.4% year on year) |
Source: Indec, Argentine trade report for September 2026. Indec reports that Brazil supplied 74.5% of purchases from Mercosur; imports from Brazil and the balance are our calculation using that share. Brazil took 72.7% of what Argentina sold to the bloc. The United States (10%) and China (9.2%) were the second and third destinations for exports over the nine months.
What Argentina sells to Brazil and what it buys
| September 2026 | Exports to Brazil | Imports from Brazil |
|---|---|---|
| Amount | US$1.206 billion | US$1.375 billion |
| Year-on-year change | +US$32 million | −US$327 million |
| Monthly balance | Deficit of US$169 million | |
| Main products | Goods vehicles, wheat, cars and crude oil (41.3% of the total) | Lower purchases of motor vehicles and capital goods explain the drop |
Source: Indec. Sales to Brazil rose on fuel and energy. In trade with Mercosur as a whole, soybeans, cars and road tractors for semi-trailers were the main imported products. In September, Argentina posted an overall trade surplus of US$2.976 billion (see September's trade balance).
Where Argentina's exports went in 2026
| Destination or partner | Figure | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 12.7% of exports (top destination) | January to September |
| United States | 10.0% of exports | January to September |
| China | 9.2% of exports; top partner by total trade in September (US$2.803 billion) | January to September and September |
| Mercosur | Exports of US$1.729 billion and imports of US$1.770 billion | September |
| Rest of ALADI (Chile, Peru and others) | Surplus of US$7.944 billion, Argentina's largest | January to September |
Source: Indec. Chile and Peru together accounted for 76.1% of exports to the "Rest of ALADI". With China, by contrast, Argentina ran its largest deficit over the nine months: US$5.901 billion. Trade with Brazil is in deficit, but much more diversified: it includes cars, food, energy and industrial inputs.
Why Brazil's election matters for Argentina
- The car industry: cars and pickups are the heart of bilateral trade. Argentine vehicle sales depend on Brazilian demand and on the rules for auto trade between the two countries.
- The exchange rate: a strong real makes Argentine goods cheaper in Brazil and Brazilian goods more expensive. The real has risen 9% against the dollar so far in 2026 (see Latin American currencies against the dollar).
- Mercosur: the bloc negotiates external agreements that require consensus among its members, and Lula and Milei have held different positions on its future.
- Politics: Milei and Lula have clashed since Argentina's 2023 campaign; in 2024 Lula asked Milei to apologize for his remarks and Milei refused (Buenos Aires Times).
The pace of Brazil's economy matters as much as the relationship between the presidents: Brazil is the main buyer of what Argentina produces. The latest activity reading in Argentina showed a 1.7% drop in August (see August's EMAE).
Argentina and Brazil on the road to 2027
Lula's new term begins on January 5, 2027, and coincides with Argentina's election year, in which Milei will seek re-election (see the 2027 presidential election). Indec will publish October trade data at the end of November: we will update these figures in this article.
Frequently asked questions
How much does Argentina export to Brazil?
US$9.789 billion between January and September 2026, 12.7% of total exports, according to Indec.
Is Brazil Argentina's main trading partner?
It is the main destination for exports. By total trade in September, China was the top partner, with US$2.803 billion.
Does Argentina have a surplus or a deficit with Brazil?
A deficit: US$169 million in September and about US$2.2 billion over nine months, by our calculation with Indec data.
What does Argentina export to Brazil?
Mainly goods vehicles, wheat, cars and crude oil.
When does Lula's new term begin?
On January 5, 2027.
