The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) raised its average copper price forecast to US$6.18 per pound for 2026 and US$5.95 for 2027, according to its Copper Market Trends Report for the third quarter, published on October 30, 2026. In its previous report, in August, it expected US$5.95 and US$5.10, respectively.
The other side of the report is less favorable for Chile: Cochilco cut its estimate of Chile's 2026 output for the third time this year, to 4.94 million tonnes, 8.4% less than in 2025. For 2027 it expects a 3% recovery, to 5.08 million tonnes, according to the official statement.
Cochilco's new copper price forecasts
US$ 6.18
Copper price 2026
annual average per pound; previously US$5.95
US$ 5.95
Copper price 2027
annual average per pound; previously US$5.10
4.94 Mt
Chile output 2026
million tonnes, −8.4% vs. 2025
5.08 Mt
Chile output 2027
million tonnes, +3%
Source: Cochilco, Copper Market Trends Report, October 30, 2026.
View the data as a table
| Copper price 2026 | US$ 6.18 · annual average per pound; previously US$5.95 |
| Copper price 2027 | US$ 5.95 · annual average per pound; previously US$5.10 |
| Chile output 2026 | 4.94 Mt · million tonnes, −8.4% vs. 2025 |
| Chile output 2027 | 5.08 Mt · million tonnes, +3% |
| Indicator | Q2 report (August 2026) | Q3 report (October 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Average copper price 2026 | US$5.95 per pound | US$6.18 per pound |
| Average copper price 2027 | US$5.10 per pound | US$5.95 per pound |
| Chile output 2026 | Above 4.94 Mt (revised down) | 4.94 million tonnes (−8.4%) |
| Chile output 2027 | — | 5.08 million tonnes (+3%) |
Source: Cochilco and La Tercera. Mt = million tonnes. The October statement does not give the output figure from the August report; La Tercera notes that in its fourth-quarter 2025 report Cochilco expected 5.61 million tonnes for 2026.
"The main support for the price is the limited response of mine production to demand that keeps growing," said Cochilco's executive vice president, Claudia Rodríguez. The agency expects the price to fall 3.7% between 2026 and 2027, but warns that this easing depends on supply actually recovering.
How the 2026 copper price forecast has changed
US$6.18 is the highest price Cochilco has forecast for 2026. Less than two years ago it expected US$4.25, meaning the estimate rose 45% between February 2025 and October 2026 (our calculation).
| Report date | Expected 2026 price (US$/lb) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| February 2025 | 4.25 | Cochilco |
| August 2025 | 4.30 | Cochilco |
| November 2025 | 4.55 | Cochilco, as reported by Portal Minero |
| February 2026 | 4.95 | Cochilco, as reported by Revista Nueva Minería |
| May 2026 | 5.55 | Cochilco, as reported by CNN Chile and Reporte Minero |
| August 2026 | 5.95 | Cochilco (previous report) |
| October 2026 | 6.18 | Cochilco |
The market is already above that level. According to Cochilco's weekly report, copper closed on Friday, October 30, at US$6.55 per pound on the London Metal Exchange, and its year-to-date average reached US$6.15, 40% higher than in the same period of 2025. For context on this year's highs, see copper near its record.
Why Chile's copper output is falling
Between January and September 2026, Chile produced 3.63 million tonnes of copper, 8.5% less than in the same period of 2025. According to Cochilco, Escondida, Codelco and Spence account for 77.3% of the country's net decline. The agency attributes the result to lower ore grades (less copper per tonne of rock), maintenance and stoppages that affected processing.
| Output data | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| January-September 2026 output | 3.63 million tonnes (−8.5%) | Cochilco |
| Share of Escondida, Codelco and Spence in the decline | 77.3% | Cochilco |
| Output needed in Q4 | ~434,000 tonnes a month (+7.6% vs. the January-September average) | Cochilco |
| September mining output (INE index) | −8.7% year on year; metal mining −12.0% | INE |
| Implied 2025 output | ~5.39 million tonnes | Our calculation using Cochilco's −8.4% |
Chile's statistics institute, INE, reported on October 30 that the mining output index fell 8.7% in September because of lower copper extraction and processing. Its bulletin attributes this partly to a temporary suspension at a major company in the sector and to lower ore grades at several mines. On the state miner's problems, see Codelco's dismissal of eight executives and Escondida's output drop.
To reach 4.94 million tonnes, the fourth quarter must average about 434,000 tonnes a month, 7.6% more than the average of the first nine months. If output does not speed up, the annual figure could fall short of the forecast, as already happened with the three previous estimates this year.
Cochilco's copper price versus the 2027 Budget
Cochilco's forecasts are more optimistic than those the Finance Ministry uses for the public accounts. The Budget Office's third-quarter Public Finance Report, published on October 6 with data through August, assumes a price of US$6.15 for 2026 and US$5.65 for 2027.
| Institution | 2026 price (US$/lb) | 2027 price (US$/lb) |
|---|---|---|
| Cochilco (October 2026) | 6.18 | 5.95 |
| Finance Ministry, Q3 2026 Public Finance Report (October 2026) | 6.15 | 5.65 |
| Long-term reference price (expert committee) | — | 5.37 |
Source: Cochilco and Dipres, Q3 2026 Public Finance Report. The long-term reference price, set by an expert committee to calculate the structural balance, was fixed at US$5.37 per pound (USc 537) for the 2027 Budget. While the actual price stays above that reference, the Treasury receives revenue that the fiscal rule treats as temporary.
The same Finance Ministry report projects that mining GDP will fall 3.3% in 2026, one of the reasons it cut this year's growth forecast to 0.7%. High prices combined with fewer tonnes explain why copper revenue does not rise as much as the price. For the historical series, see Chile's GDP over the last 50 years.
The world copper market: little slack in 2026 and 2027
Cochilco projects a refined copper market with very small surpluses: 144,000 tonnes in 2026, just 0.5% of world consumption, and 215,000 tonnes in 2027, 0.8% of consumption. With margins like these, any disruption at a large mine or stronger-than-expected demand could tighten the market again.
| World market | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| World mine output | 23.30 Mt (−0.6%) | 24.08 Mt (+3.4%) |
| Refined copper supply | 27.64 Mt (+1.1%) | 28.20 Mt (+2.0%) |
| Refined copper demand | 27.50 Mt (+1.5%) | 27.98 Mt (+1.8%) |
| Refined surplus | 144,000 t (0.5% of consumption) | 215,000 t (0.8% of consumption) |
| China demand growth | 1.6% | 1.0% (57.3% of world consumption) |
Source: Cochilco. The 2027 mine recovery would come from Chile, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mongolia, Zambia and Indonesia. China would remain the main buyer, although other markets would provide about two thirds of the demand increase in 2027.
Frequently asked questions
What is the copper price forecast for 2026?
Cochilco forecasts an average price of US$6.18 per pound for 2026, according to its October 30 report. The Finance Ministry uses US$6.15 in its third-quarter Public Finance Report.
And for 2027?
Cochilco expects US$5.95 per pound in 2027, up from US$5.10 in its August report. The Finance Ministry projects US$5.65, and the long-term reference price for the 2027 Budget is US$5.37.
How much copper will Chile produce in 2026?
Cochilco estimates 4.94 million tonnes, 8.4% less than in 2025. It is the third cut of the year; in its fourth-quarter 2025 report it expected 5.61 million tonnes.
Why is output falling if prices are high?
Because short-term output depends on geology and operations, not on price. Cochilco cites lower ore grades, maintenance and stoppages; Escondida, Codelco and Spence account for 77.3% of the decline.
What is the copper price today?
On Friday, October 30, 2026, it closed at US$6.55 per pound in London, according to Cochilco's weekly report. The year-to-date average at that date was US$6.15.
