Copper closed at US$6.69 a pound on Wednesday, October 14, on the London Metal Exchange, very close to its all-time high, according to Cochilco figures reported by the [Xinhua](http://spanish.xinhuanet.com/20261015/f83455aa19f94ee19d0bbad6e139e337/c.html) news agency. The metal is up 40.4% this year. The paradox is that the best price in history comes just as Chile, the world's largest producer, is mining less copper: August output fell 12.8% from a year earlier, there is a strike at Minera Centinela, and a fatal accident forced part of El Teniente to halt.
This explains why Chile's Finance Ministry cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.7%, even with copper prices sky-high. Here are the numbers, where they come from and what they mean.
What copper is trading at
| Indicator | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Close on October 14, 2026 (London) | US$6.69 per pound | Cochilco, via Xinhua |
| Close on October 13 | US$6.686 per pound | Cochilco, via Redimin |
| Close on October 12 | US$6.72 per pound (second highest in history in nominal terms) | Cochilco, via Redimin |
| Nominal record | Above US$6.73 per pound, on August 17, 2026 | Redimin |
| Year-to-date average as of October 9 | US$6.11 per pound | Cochilco |
| Gain so far in 2026 | 40.4% | Cochilco |
Cochilco publishes its daily figures at cochilco.cl. Redimin placed the nominal record on August 17. A note from broker XTB, which quotes the price per tonne, puts the peak in September. The difference comes from different markets and units. Either way, the price is less than 1% below its ceiling.
Why copper is rising
- Tight supply: Chilean mines, which produce about a quarter of the world's copper, are delivering less metal.
- Metal stockpiled in the United States: New York warehouses are near record levels on fears of tariffs, leaving less copper available in other markets. Since August 2025 the US has charged 50% on semi-finished copper products, according to XTB. How these taxes work is explained in what a tariff is.
- Demand from data centers and electrification: power grids, electric cars and data centers use large amounts of copper.
- Supply risk elsewhere: in Zambia, a suspension of a 10% export tax on copper concentrate expired on September 30.
"The record price reflects a very tight market: weak supply, low inventories," economist Francisco Castañeda of Universidad Central told Xinhua.
How much copper Chile is producing
Chile's statistics agency, INE, reported August copper output of about 369,500 tonnes, compared with 423,600 in August 2025: a drop of 12.8%, according to a summary by Industrial Info. The agency blamed bad weather in July, whose effects carried into August, and lower ore grades at key operations. From January to August, cumulative output was 3.27 million tonnes, 7.8% less than a year earlier.
| Period | Output | Year-on-year change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | 369,500 tonnes | -12.8% | INE |
| January to August 2026 | 3.27 million tonnes | -7.8% | INE |
| January to July 2026 (fine copper) | About 2.9 million tonnes | -7.1% | Cochilco |
| 2026 forecast | 5.27 million tonnes | -2.6% | Cochilco |
| 2027 forecast | Up to 5.55 million tonnes | +5.2% | Cochilco |
The INE and Cochilco figures are not identical because they measure different things: INE reports monthly mining output and Cochilco fine copper by company. Both point in the same direction.
What is happening at Centinela, Escondida and El Teniente
| Mine | Owner | What is happening | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centinela | Antofagasta Minerals (Luksic group) | Strike by two unions (709 workers) since October 7 over pay equality | Still under way as of October 15, according to Xinhua. The company says its projected output is unchanged |
| El Teniente | Codelco | A landslide killed two contract workers on October 11 | Operations halted in the affected area |
| Escondida | BHP | Stoppage after a contractor's death in September and a strike vote by supervisors | Preliminary deal with Supervisors' Union No. 2; the strike was suspended |
At Centinela, the unions rejected an offer of a 2% real raise, a signing bonus of 22.5 million pesos and a soft loan of 3.5 million pesos, Meganoticias reported. The unions estimate output could fall by up to 50% in November if the strike continues; the company does not share that figure.
El Teniente was already under pressure: in the first half of 2026 it produced 126,000 tonnes, compared with 172,000 in the same period of 2025, a 27% drop, according to XTB.
Why a good price is not enough for faster growth
With copper more expensive, the government collects more revenue and the dollar tends to weaken, but growth depends on how much is produced. Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz cut the 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.7%, from 1.8% in July, because of lower copper output, Chile País Minero reported. For 2027 the ministry expects a rebound to 3.3%. Quiroz went as far as calling it a "copper recession," blamed on less investment and ageing deposits.
| Assumption or forecast | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026 GDP growth (Finance Ministry, October) | 0.7% |
| 2026 GDP growth (Finance Ministry, July) | 1.8% |
| Central Bank range for 2026 | 0.25% to 0.75% |
| Average 2026 copper price assumed by the ministry | US$6.15 per pound |
| Average 2027 copper price assumed by the ministry | US$5.65 per pound |
To see how much Chile grew in other good copper years, see the ranking of GDP growth over the last 50 years. Copper's effect on the exchange rate is explained in what the dólar observado is.
What comes next
- The Centinela negotiation: if the strike drags on, November output will show it.
- El Teniente's return to the area halted after the accident.
- The Central Bank meeting on October 26 and 27, which will weigh the effect of copper and the dollar on inflation.
- The next INE and Cochilco data, which will show whether August's drop was a one-off or a trend.
Frequently asked questions
What is the copper price today?
The last close reported by Cochilco before this article was US$6.69 per pound, on October 14, 2026, on the London Metal Exchange.
What is copper's all-time high?
In nominal terms, above US$6.73 per pound, on August 17, 2026, according to Redimin.
Why is Chile producing less copper?
Because of one-off problems such as weather, strikes and accidents, and structural ones: older, lower-grade deposits and few new projects.
How does the copper price affect the dollar in Chile?
Expensive copper usually brings more dollars into the country and pushes the exchange rate down, although US interest rates and market mood also play a role.
