Smuggling and under-invoicing cost Argentina US$2,855 million in taxes

Smuggling and import under-invoicing will cost Argentina about US$2,855 million in tax revenue in 2026, equal to 0.4% of GDP, according to a MAP LATAM report cited by Bloomberg Línea on November 13. Of that total, US$2,283 million comes from smuggling, goods entering without passing through customs, and US$572 million from under-invoicing, which means declaring an import below its real value to pay less in tariffs and taxes.

The study covers 15 sectors that together account for 2.6% of GDP and 14.5% of manufacturing output. The figure only covers those activities, so the total cost of illegal trade in Argentina is higher. According to the consultancy, the loss equals 120% of expected revenue from excise taxes (Impuestos Internos) and 1.6 times the revenue from the personal assets tax (Bienes Personales).

Which products cause the biggest smuggling losses in Argentina

Spirits account for about half of the total, with some US$1,400 million in uncollected taxes. They are followed by clothing (US$470 million), mobile phones (US$255 million), cigarettes (US$230 million) and agrochemicals (US$205 million). Those five categories add up to about US$2,560 million; the rest, about US$295 million, is split among the other sectors in the study, which the Bloomberg Línea report does not break down.

Source: MAP LATAM report cited by Bloomberg Línea. The spirits figure is approximate in the source. "Other sectors surveyed" is a Vivarae News calculation by difference from the total, and percentages are rounded.

The markets where smuggling weighs most

Measured as a share of the market, the most extreme case is Arab perfumery: 83% of what is sold was smuggled in, according to MAP LATAM. For mobile phones the share reaches 40% and for toys 33%. In textiles, leather goods and televisions the main problem is under-invoicing, with no published penetration figure. El Economista cites estimates of about 3.2 million mobile phones entering irregularly each year, more than a third of the market, and 6 to 10 million pairs of shoes.

The report also mentions illegal trade in yerba mate, tires, footwear, small appliances, medicines, medical products, food and building materials, though without quantifying them. For cigarettes, the price gap with Paraguay, where they can cost up to three times less, fuels illegal entry, according to an ASIPI study cited by El Economista.

The impact also shows up in business surveys. In September, 59.7% of 628 manufacturers surveyed by the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) said unfair competition and smuggling have a high or very high impact on their business, six points more than a year earlier, according to El Economista. The most affected sectors are common metals (88.2%), textiles (84.6%) and apparel, leather and footwear (76.2%). In textiles, installed capacity utilization fell to 44.6% in August, according to INDEC, and more than 700 companies have closed since December 2023.

Why smuggling is growing in Argentina

MAP LATAM describes smuggling as "a structural phenomenon whose incidence worsened in a context of opening and deregulation of the economy". The study notes that in 2024 the mandatory documentary and physical checks on textiles, footwear and products under antidumping duties were removed, as were import reference values, which were used to detect declared prices that were too low. It also points to earlier weaknesses, such as outdated technology and lack of training.

Assessing customs, the consultancy concludes that it meets international standards in advance information, risk management and authorized economic operators; it partially meets them in value control and physical and non-intrusive inspections, and does not meet them in measuring results.

How much smuggling costs Argentina compared with other years and rankings

An earlier report by the same consultancy, cited by El Economista, had estimated the 2025 fiscal loss at US$2,300 million, so the 2026 estimate is higher, although it is not clear whether both studies cover exactly the same sectors. In international indices, Argentina ranks 120th out of 158 in TRACIT's 2025 illicit trade index and 16th out of 193 for illicit trade in excise goods in the Global Organized Crime Index (GI-TOC), compared with 27th in 2023. A different study, by ASIPI and Sinnetic, estimates that all illicit trade equaled 5.06% of Argentina's GDP in 2023, using a methodology that is not comparable with MAP's.

According to MAP, the uncollected revenue would be enough to build about 2,400 schools, 120 outpatient health centers or 2,250 kilometers of national highways. The figure comes as October tax revenue grew 33.7% and industry remains weak: industrial activity fell 1.8% in September and the private sector has 134,500 fewer registered jobs than a year ago.

Frequently asked questions

About US$2,855 million in tax revenue in 2026 from smuggling and under-invoicing in 15 sectors, 0.4% of GDP, according to MAP LATAM.

Declaring an import below its real value to pay less in tariffs and taxes. It costs the treasury about US$572 million a year.

By fiscal loss, spirits, clothing and mobile phones. By market share, Arab perfumery (83%), mobile phones (40%) and toys (33%).

The consultancy MAP LATAM. This article is based on Bloomberg Línea's coverage of November 13, 2026; the full report is not publicly available.