Mexico's economy grew 0.9% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter and 3.2% compared with the same period of 2025, according to Inegi's Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP (bulletin 673/26), released on Friday, October 30. The figures are seasonally adjusted.
The annual figure beat the 2.5% the market expected, according to FXStreet, and it is the strongest annual growth in unadjusted figures since 2023. Between January and September, GDP is up 1.9%. This article sums up the figures by sector, how they compare with previous quarters and what is still pending before the final figure.
Mexico's GDP in the third quarter: Inegi's figures
| Indicator (seasonally adjusted) | Quarterly change | Annual change | January-September |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flash GDP | +0.9% | +3.2% | +1.9% |
| Primary activities (agriculture, fishing) | −0.4% | +1.8% | +2.0% |
| Secondary activities (industry, construction, mining) | +0.8% | +3.1% | +1.1% |
| Tertiary activities (trade and services) | +1.1% | +3.3% | +2.2% |
Source: Inegi, bulletin 673/26. Services drove the quarter, with the largest quarterly and annual gains. Industry also grew, while agriculture fell compared with the second quarter. Inegi notes that the flash estimate is calculated with econometric models and the information available 30 days after the quarter ends, and that it "does not replace the traditional estimate."
How Mexico's GDP compares with previous quarters
The third quarter consolidates the recovery that began in the second. In unadjusted figures, Inegi's series shows the annual change in GDP as follows:
| Quarter | Annual GDP change (unadjusted figures) |
|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | −0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | +1.7% |
| Full year 2025 | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | +0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | +2.1% |
| Q3 2026 (flash) | +3.2% |
Source: Inegi, table 2 of bulletin 673/26. Figures for 2025 and the first half of 2026 are preliminary. In the second quarter, GDP had grown 1.4% over the first, according to the revised figure published in August. Monthly indicators already pointed to the rebound: the August IGAE rose 3.5% year on year and the timely indicator estimated 3.7% for September.
What drove growth in Mexico's economy
- Services: tertiary activities, which include trade, transport, financial services and government, grew 3.3% year on year and are the largest sector of the economy.
- Industry and exports: secondary activities rose 3.1% year on year. Exports grew strongly in September, as shown in the September trade balance.
- Agriculture: primary activities grew 1.8% year on year but fell 0.4% compared with the second quarter.
- External backdrop: Finance Minister Edgar Amador attributed the improvement to a favorable environment, with record foreign direct investment and lower US tariffs than those applied to other competitors (El Financiero).
What the government said and how the peso reacted
A day before the release, Amador told the Milken Institute Global Investors' Symposium that the economy "is gaining momentum" and that Mexico "is doing well," with falling inflation and stable interest rates, according to El Financiero. He added that analysts have revised their forecasts upward.
In markets, the Mexican peso firmed slightly after the release, although an hour earlier the dollar had touched 18.91 pesos, its highest level in 15 months, and was trading near 18.87, according to FXStreet. Why the peso has been losing ground is explained in our article on the Mexican peso's losing streak.
What the GDP flash estimate is
Inegi publishes the flash estimate 30 days after each quarter ends, well before the traditional figure, which comes almost two months later. To calculate it, it uses the statistical information available, administrative records and econometric models, following international recommendations, according to Inegi's bulletin.
- Seasonally adjusted figures: they remove calendar and seasonal effects, so they are used to compare one quarter with the previous one (the 0.9%).
- Unadjusted figures: the raw data; they are mostly used to compare with the same quarter a year earlier (also 3.2% in this case).
- Components calculated separately: Inegi warns that the seasonally adjusted flash GDP series is calculated independently from its components, which is why the sectors do not add up exactly to the total.
The strong growth figure coexists with other indicators the Bank of Mexico watches closely. Banxico's interest rate stands at 6.5%, according to the Bank for International Settlements, and inflation rose to 3.62% in the first half of October, as explained in our article on inflation in Mexico. Firmer growth reduces pressure to cut rates, while inflation remains above the 3% target.
What comes after Mexico's GDP flash estimate
| Release | Date | What it will show |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly GDP (traditional figure) for Q3 | November 27, 2026 | Revision of this figure with complete information |
| Flash estimate for Q4 | January 29, 2027 | First figure for the end of 2026 |
Sources: Inegi and the calendar cited by the press. The flash estimate is often adjusted: in the second quarter, the figure went from 1.5% to 1.4% quarter on quarter in the revised data. The comparison with the rest of the region is in the IMF's Latin American growth ranking, and the labor market in Mexico's September unemployment figure.
Frequently asked questions
How much did Mexico's GDP grow in the third quarter of 2026?
0.9% compared with the second quarter and 3.2% year on year, according to Inegi's flash estimate released on October 30.
Which sector grew the most?
Services (tertiary activities), with 1.1% quarter on quarter and 3.3% year on year.
What did the market expect?
Annual growth of 2.5%, according to FXStreet.
How much is Mexico's economy growing in 2026?
1.9% between January and September compared with the same period of 2025, according to Inegi.
When is the final figure released?
Inegi publishes the traditional estimate of third-quarter GDP on November 27, 2026.
