The Mexican peso closed on Friday 16 October 2026 at 18.5045 per US dollar, according to Bank of Mexico data cited by [El CEO](https://elceo.com/mercados/tipo-de-cambio-peso-dolar-hoy-16-de-octubre-de-2026/), and posted its sixth straight weekly loss, its worst weekly streak since July-August 2019. During the week it reached 18.60 per dollar, a level not seen since November 2025, Milenio reported.
The fall is modest in percentage terms, but steady. Here are the exchange rate figures, the reasons behind the weaker Mexican peso and what analysts expect for the end of 2026.
The Mexican peso exchange rate this week
| Indicator | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Close on Friday 16 October | 18.5045 pesos per dollar | Banxico, via El CEO |
| FIX rate on 16 October | 18.4250 pesos | Banxico and the Official Gazette, via La Opinión |
| Day's range | 18.34 to 18.51 | El CEO |
| Week's high | 18.60 | Milenio |
| Weekly change in the peso | -0.51% to -0.54% | El CEO and Milenio |
| Consecutive losing weeks | 6 | El CEO and Milenio |
Closing figures vary with the time and reference used: Milenio recorded 18.48 at the close. The FIX rate published by the Bank of Mexico is the one used to settle dollar obligations within Mexico (La Opinión).
Why the Mexican peso is falling
- The Federal Reserve. Markets expect the US Fed to hold rates at its 27-28 October meeting but to raise them toward year-end. Higher US rates narrow the gap with Mexican rates, which is what made the peso attractive.
- The carry trade is losing appeal. Analyst Felipe Mendoza (EBC Financial Group) told El CEO that Fed expectations make that strategy less attractive.
- The HR Ratings downgrade. On 15 October the agency cut Mexico's rating from BBB+ to BBB, which according to Mendoza "generated some uncertainty among investors".
- Fewer bets on the peso. Gabriela Siller (Banco Base) calculated that net speculative positions in Chicago futures fell 82.64%, about 72,540 contracts, since 15 September.
Details of the downgrade are in our story on HR Ratings and Mexico's rating.
What the carry trade is and why it weighs on the currency
In 2024 and 2025 the peso benefited from one of the widest interest rate gaps in the world versus the United States. An investor could borrow in dollars at a low rate, switch to pesos and invest in Mexican bonds paying more. That trade, the carry trade, raises demand for pesos and strengthens the currency.
When the Fed is expected to raise rates while Banxico holds or cuts, the profit from the trade shrinks. Some investors close positions, sell pesos and buy dollars, which pushes the exchange rate up. That is why the peso reacts so strongly to signals from both the Fed and Banxico.
How much dollars cost at banks and exchange houses
| Where | Dollar selling price |
|---|---|
| Banamex | 18.95 pesos |
| BBVA | 18.97 pesos |
| Banorte | 18.80 pesos |
| Exchange houses | 18.50 pesos |
Prices on 16 October, according to El CEO. They change several times a day, so it pays to compare at least two options before buying.
What Banxico will do and what to expect for the Mexican peso
The Bank of Mexico keeps its benchmark rate at 6.50%, where it left it after pausing cuts in August, according to Ámbito. The minutes of its last meeting showed part of the board would be willing to cut again if inflation improves; annual inflation was 3.45% in September. The next decision is scheduled for 5 November, according to BBVA Research. President Claudia Sheinbaum called the central bank's actions "responsible" (Bloomberg Línea).
| Forecast | Value | Who |
|---|---|---|
| End of 2026 | 18.20 to 18.30 pesos per dollar | James Salazar, Kapital Grupo Financiero |
| Volatility scenario | Close to 19 pesos per dollar | James Salazar, Kapital Grupo Financiero |
| 2026 average | 19.3 pesos per dollar | Finance Ministry, economic policy guidelines |
"Overall, it seems the pressure on the peso is here to stay", Salazar told Milenio, citing risks from the Middle East, the US November elections and the USMCA review. Inflation for the first half of October, due next week, could move the currency.
Who is affected by a weaker peso
- Families receiving remittances: each dollar sent from the US buys more pesos.
- People who travel or shop in dollars: flights, online purchases and dollar subscriptions cost more.
- Exporters: receive more pesos for their foreign sales.
- Importers: pay more for inputs and goods, a cost that can reach prices if the depreciation lasts.
The Mexican stock market moved the other way
While the peso fell, the S&P/BMV IPC index rose 1.87% on Friday to 68,929.72 points and gained 4.36% on the week, its best performance since April, according to Milenio. FEMSA rose 5.35% after a JP Morgan upgrade. See also Mexico's 2026 minimum wage and the Latin America inflation ranking.
Frequently asked questions
Where did the dollar close in Mexico on 16 October 2026?
At 18.5045 pesos according to Banxico, cited by El CEO. The FIX rate that day was 18.4250.
Why has the Mexican peso fallen for six weeks?
Because of expected Fed rate hikes, HR Ratings' downgrade of Mexico and the unwinding of speculative bets on the peso.
When is Banxico's next decision?
On 5 November 2026, according to the calendar published by BBVA Research.
How high could the dollar go?
Kapital Grupo Financiero sees the year ending between 18.20 and 18.30, with a volatility scenario near 19 pesos.
