Mexico's economy likely grew 3.7% year on year in September 2026, according to the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) that [Inegi](https://www.inegi.org.mx/investigacion/ioae/) published on October 20. Month-on-month growth, however, would be just 0.1% compared with August, below the 0.5% the same indicator had estimated for August, UnoTV reported.
The IOAE is an econometric estimate, not the official figure: Inegi publishes it before the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) to anticipate the economy's direction. These are the figures and what they say about Mexico's economy.
The September nowcast figures
| Indicator (September 2026) | Annual change | Monthly change | Level (2018 = 100) |
|---|---|---|---|
| IGAE (total economy) | 3.7% | 0.1% | 108.4 |
| Secondary activities (industry) | 3.6% | 0.1% | 103.4 |
| Tertiary activities (trade and services) | 4.0% | 0.1% | 111.3 |
Seasonally adjusted figures. Sources: Inegi, via Crónica and El Siglo de Torreón. Services and trade grew 0.4 points faster than industry year on year.
How certain is the 3.7% for Mexico's economy
Inegi publishes each estimate with a 95% confidence interval. September's is wide: real annual growth could be between 2.6% and 4.9%, and monthly growth between a 1.0% drop and a 1.2% rise, according to Crónica.
| Estimate | Central value | 95% confidence interval |
|---|---|---|
| IGAE annual | 3.7% | 2.6% to 4.9% |
| IGAE monthly | 0.1% | -1.0% to 1.2% |
| Secondary annual | 3.6% | 1.4% to 5.9% |
| Tertiary annual | 4.0% | 2.6% to 5.4% |
In other words, the indicator lets us say with reasonable confidence that the economy is larger than a year ago, but not that it grew from August: the monthly interval includes negative values.
The trend of Mexico's economy in 2026
| Month of 2026 | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| July (official IGAE) | +0.8% monthly; +3.3% annual | Inegi |
| August (nowcast) | +0.5% monthly; +3.2% annual | IOAE, via La Razón |
| September (nowcast) | +0.1% monthly; +3.7% annual | IOAE |
The official August figure has not been released yet; the nowcast for that month was revised from 2.5% to 3.2% year on year, according to La Razón. Annual and monthly figures measure different things and do not contradict each other: the economy is 3.7% above September 2025 but barely grew from the previous month. El Siglo de Torreón's reading is that growth "has slowed" in the last weeks of the quarter. The official IGAE for September will confirm or correct it.
What the government said and what the IMF projects
Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said the trend since July is positive: "The measures the government is taking are bearing positive fruit", according to La Razón.
The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 growth forecast for Mexico in October to 1.5%, three tenths more than in July, and cut 2027 from 1.9% to 1.8%, according to N+. The IMF attributes growth to exports, including those linked to artificial intelligence value chains, and warned that trade uncertainty will keep weighing. In July it had cut 2026 from 1.6% to 1.2% (El Financiero).
| IMF forecast for Mexico | July 2026 | October 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 growth | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| 2027 growth | 1.9% | 1.8% |
Why the figure matters for the peso and wages
Annual growth of 3.7% contrasts with the IMF's 1.5% forecast for all of 2026, because the year started weak and the comparison with 2025 is low. For markets, the question is whether momentum holds in the fourth quarter, at a time when the Mexican peso posted six weekly losses and HR Ratings downgraded Mexico to BBB. For households, the figure matters ahead of the 2027 minimum wage talks and December's aguinaldo bonus.
What the timely indicator is and how it differs from the IGAE
The IGAE is Mexico's official monthly measure of economic activity and works as a month-by-month proxy for GDP. Because it gathers data from thousands of sources, Inegi publishes it with about a two-month lag. The IOAE was created to shorten that wait: using statistical models that combine information already available, it estimates the IGAE for the two most recent months, according to Inegi.
| Feature | IOAE (nowcast) | IGAE (official) |
|---|---|---|
| What it is | Econometric estimate | Full statistical measurement |
| Lag | About three weeks after the month | About two months after the month |
| Precision | With a 95% confidence interval | Point figure, subject to minor revisions |
| Use | Anticipate the trend | Measure activity and compute GDP |
When the official IGAE differs from the IOAE, the official figure prevails. Analysts therefore use the nowcast as an early signal, not a final result.
The three main activities of Mexico's economy
| Activity | What it includes | September 2026 (annual) |
|---|---|---|
| Primary | Agriculture, livestock, fishing and forestry | Not included in the nowcast |
| Secondary | Mining, electricity, water, construction and manufacturing | 3.6% |
| Tertiary | Trade, transport, financial services, government and other services | 4.0% |
Tertiary activities are the largest part of Mexico's economy, so their 4.0% growth explains much of the 3.7% total. In industry, export manufacturing to the United States is the variable analysts watch most, because it depends on trade relations with that country.
When the next figure is published
- Official IGAE for August and September: in the coming weeks, on Inegi's website.
- Timely estimate of third-quarter GDP: at the end of October.
- Next IOAE (October): November 19, 2026, according to UnoTV.
Frequently asked questions
How much did Mexico's economy grow in September 2026?
According to Inegi's nowcast, 3.7% year on year and 0.1% from August. It is a preliminary figure that the official IGAE may correct.
What is the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity?
An Inegi estimate, built with econometric models, that anticipates the IGAE before all data are in. It is published with confidence intervals.
Which sector grew most?
Trade and services (tertiary activities), at 4.0% year on year, versus 3.6% for industry.
How much will Mexico grow in 2026 according to the IMF?
1.5%, according to the October 2026 update. For 2027 it projects 1.8%.
