Mexico's annual inflation rose to 3.62% in the first half of October 2026, up from 3.49% in the second half of September, according to the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) published by Inegi on Thursday, October 22 ([La Razón](https://www.razon.com.mx/negocios/2026/10/22/inflacion-en-primera-quincena-de-octubre-de-2026-repunta-a-362-inegi/), [Infobae/EFE](https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/10/22/la-inflacion-en-mexico-se-situa-en-el-362-en-la-primera-quincena-de-octubre/)). Prices rose 0.41% in the fortnight, above the 0.35% Banamex expected, driven by the end of summer electricity subsidies in 18 cities and higher air fares.
It is the highest level since the second half of May, and inflation has been rising since the 3.12% low it hit in July (El Imparcial). Even so, it remains within the Bank of Mexico's 2% to 4% tolerance range.
Inflation in Mexico in figures
| Indicator (first half of October 2026) | Fortnightly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| Headline INPC | 0.41% | 3.62% |
| Core | 0.25% | 3.78% |
| Goods | 0.17% | 3.28% |
| Services | 0.31% | 4.26% |
| Non-core | 0.98% | 3.08% |
| Agricultural | -0.11% | n/a |
| Energy and government-set tariffs | 1.85% | 4.02% |
Sources: Inegi, with the figures published by Infobae/EFE and La Razón. "n/a": not clearly reported in those sources. The headline index stood at 146.739 points. In the same fortnight of 2025, annual inflation was 3.63%, practically the same. Sources differ on the figure for the second half of September (3.49% according to La Razón) and for September as a whole (3.45%).
What rose and what fell in the fortnight
| Biggest increases | Change | Biggest decreases | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green tomatillo | +22.07% | Lime | -10.43% |
| Electricity | +18.51% | Avocado | -4.79% |
| Zucchini | +16.27% | Orange | -4.58% |
| Air transport | +14.77% | Bananas | -4.15% |
| Professional services | +9.55% | Tomato | -3.04% |
| Package tours | +6.80% | Potatoes and other tubers | -2.53% |
Source: Inegi, via Excélsior and Infobae/EFE. The electricity increase reflects the end of the summer electricity tariff program in 18 cities, including Monterrey, Mérida, Veracruz, Cancún and Villahermosa. It is an effect that repeats every autumn: the subsidy lowers bills in the hot months and, when it ends, the index records the jump.
Why core inflation in Mexico matters
Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile prices such as agricultural goods and energy, is what the Bank of Mexico watches most closely when setting its rate. It rose 0.25% in the fortnight, ending a streak of four fortnightly declines; its annual rate stood at 3.78%, above the 3.70% the market expected (El Imparcial). Within it, services rose 4.26% year on year, faster than goods (3.28%).
| Category | Annual inflation |
|---|---|
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 7.30% |
| Insurance and financial services | 7.06% |
| Restaurants and accommodation | 6.16% |
| Education services | 5.85% |
| Health | 4.45% |
| Minimum consumption basket (170 items) | 3.44% |
Source: Inegi, via Infobae/EFE. The minimum consumption basket, which groups 170 basic goods and services, rises less than the headline index. For comparison: inflation closed 2025 at 3.69%, its lowest in five years; 2024 at 4.21%; 2023 at 4.66%; and 2022 at 7.82%, according to the same source.
Inflation's path in 2026
| Period | Annual inflation | Source |
|---|---|---|
| End of 2025 | 3.69% | Inegi, via Infobae/EFE |
| July 2026 (low of the year) | 3.12% | El Imparcial |
| September 2026 (full month) | 3.45% | El Imparcial |
| Second half of September 2026 | 3.49% | La Razón |
| First half of October 2026 | 3.62% | Inegi |
| First half of October 2025 | 3.63% | Inegi, via Infobae/EFE |
Inegi publishes the INPC twice a month: one reading for each fortnight and another for the full month. The fortnightly figure is compared with the same fortnight a year earlier, so it can move because of calendar effects, such as the end of the summer electricity subsidy, which shows up every year in the first half of October. This year, inflation fell from the end of 2025 until July and has been rising since, though it remains close to target. Data for the second half of October and the full month will be released in early November (Inegi).
Inflation in Mexico and Banxico's rate
The Bank of Mexico has kept its target rate at 6.50% since May and left it unchanged for the third consecutive time in September, in a unanimous vote (El Financiero; Banxico). A Citi survey published on October 20 shows 25 of 36 analysts expect the rate to stay at that level for the rest of 2026 and in 2027 (El Financiero). Banamex warned of new pressure from a reversal in farm prices, labor costs and the recent exchange-rate adjustment (La Razón); the peso posted six straight weeks of losses (see why the peso is falling).
What it means for households
With inflation at 3.62%, the 2026 minimum wage, which rose 13%, keeps gaining purchasing power. But higher electricity bills are felt in the cities where the subsidy ended, and services such as restaurants and insurance are rising at twice the average pace. The economy is growing little and unemployment is low (see unemployment in Mexico). Inegi will publish second-half October and full-month inflation in early November; to compare with the rest of the region, see inflation in Latin America.
Frequently asked questions
What is Mexico's inflation in October 2026?
3.62% year on year in the first half of October, according to Inegi. The full-month figure is released in early November.
Why did inflation rise?
Because of the end of the summer electricity subsidy in 18 cities, air fares and some farm products such as green tomatillo and zucchini.
What is core inflation?
Inflation excluding volatile prices such as farm goods and energy. It stood at 3.78% year on year.
What is Banxico's inflation target?
3%, with a tolerance range of 2% to 4%.
What is Banxico's interest rate?
6.50%, unchanged since May 2026.
