Financial traders expect the Central Bank of Chile to keep its monetary policy rate (TPM) at 4.5% at the meeting that ends on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, according to the Financial Traders Survey (EOF) published on Thursday, October 22, and reported by [Diario Financiero](https://www.df.cl/economia-y-politica/macro/operadores-financieros-anticipan-que-el-banco-central-mantendra-la-tasa-la). The median of the 62 respondents sees the rate at that level for at least 24 months, but the survey brings a new signal: one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.7%, and the number of responses expecting a rate hike in January doubled.
The rate has been at 4.5% since December 2025, and in September the board held it unanimously (La República). Here are the survey figures, what explains the shift and what may happen at the next meetings.
What the market expects from Chile's central bank on October 27
The EOF is run before every Monetary Policy Meeting (RPM) and summarizes the views of trading desks, brokers and other market participants. The Central Bank's calendar sets the October meeting for the 26th and 27th, with the statement released at 6:00 p.m. on the second day. Some outlets give October 28 as the meeting date; the official calendar says the 26th and 27th.
| EOF variable | September 2026 | October 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Expected TPM for the October meeting | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| TPM in 12 and 24 months | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| October CPI (monthly change) | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| November CPI (monthly change) | n/a | 0.5% |
| Expected CPI over 12 months | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| Expected CPI over 13 to 24 months | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| Expected dollar in 7 days | CLP 945 | CLP 980 |
| Expected dollar in 28 days | CLP 940 | CLP 980 |
Sources: Diario Financiero and La Tercera, which reported the results published by the Central Bank. "n/a": not reported in those sources. La Tercera notes that 12-month inflation expectations rose for a fifth straight time to their highest level since April; the central bank's target is 3%.
Why Chile's central bank would hold the rate
The rate stays at 4.5% because the central bank faces two forces pulling in opposite directions. Activity is weak: traders expect growth close to 0% in 2026, according to La Tercera, and the IMF puts it at 0.6% (see the IMF's cut to Chile's growth forecast). At the same time, inflation has picked up again and is moving away from target.
| Indicator | Latest figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| September CPI (monthly) | 0.4% | INE, via El Desconcierto |
| CPI year to date 2026 | 4.0% | INE |
| CPI over 12 months | 4.1% | INE |
| Central bank inflation target | 3% (range of 2% to 4%) | Central Bank |
| Current TPM | 4.5% since December 2025 | Central Bank |
CPI data: National Statistics Institute, with details of the September rise in El Desconcierto, which highlights fuel and food. If you want to know how inflation is measured, see what the CPI is and how it is calculated. With 12-month inflation at 4.1%, Chile is above the upper end of the central bank's tolerance range.
Inflation: the central bank's main concern
The most important change in the survey is not about October, but about what comes next. In September only three traders expected a rate hike in December; in October, six do. For the first meeting of 2027, in January, 14 responses point to an increase, twice as many as a month earlier (DF).
| Meeting | Responses expecting a hike (September EOF) | Responses expecting a hike (October EOF) |
|---|---|---|
| December 2026 | 3 | 6 |
| January 2027 | 7 | 14 |
The median is still 4.5%, but the top decile of responses already sees the rate at 4.75% in January 2027 and at 5% from March, according to La Tercera. Expected inflation for October (0.5%) and November (0.5%) explains part of that shift: if they materialize, 12-month CPI would stay above 4% at year-end, which also pushes up the UF and inflation-indexed mortgages.
The dollar and oil put pressure on the central bank
The exchange rate is the other factor. Traders expect the dollar at CLP 980 in 7 and 28 days, CLP 35 and 40 more than a month ago and the highest expected value since March 2025, according to La Tercera. On Wednesday the 21st the dollar closed at CLP 978.19 (Infobae) and on Thursday it opened near CLP 987, with copper falling and Brent crude at a more than five-month high on tensions in the Strait of Hormuz (Portal Innova). Early on Thursday, December Brent traded around US$110 a barrel (Euribor.com.es).
A more expensive dollar raises fuel and import prices, and that feeds into the CPI. That pass-through is one reason the market stopped expecting rate cuts. Earlier this month we covered how the dollar exchange rate hit CLP 987, its high for the year.
When Chile's central bank could raise the rate
| Date | Milestone |
|---|---|
| October 26 and 27, 2026 | Monetary Policy Meeting; statement on the 27th at 6:00 p.m. |
| November 4, 2026 | Minutes of the October meeting |
| December 15, 2026 | Last meeting of the year |
| December 16, 2026 | December Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) |
| January 2027 | First meeting of 2027, where most traders see a hike |
Source: monetary policy calendar of the Central Bank of Chile. The October 27 decision will be announced at 6:00 p.m.; we will update this article with the statement and each board member's vote. For inflation in perspective, see Chile's inflation year by year.
Frequently asked questions
When is the next central bank meeting in Chile?
On October 26 and 27, 2026. The rate decision is published on Tuesday the 27th at 6:00 p.m.
What is Chile's monetary policy rate?
4.5%, the level it has held since December 2025.
Will the rate rise in October?
The median of the Financial Traders Survey expects it to stay at 4.5%. Bets on a hike focus on December and, above all, January 2027.
What inflation does the market expect?
0.5% in October, 0.5% in November and 3.7% over the next 12 months, according to the October 2026 EOF.
What exchange rate do traders expect?
CLP 980 per dollar in 7 and 28 days, about CLP 35 to 40 more than in the September survey.
