41% of Chileans believe former president Michelle Bachelet would be the best presidential candidate of the centre-left and left, against 24% who prefer Gabriel Boric, according to the Cadem poll published on 11 October. But among those who identify with that camp the difference almost disappears: 47% versus 44%. The survey was taken two days after Bachelet left the door open to a third run for the presidency.
What Cadem asked and what people answered
The question was: "Thinking about a future presidential election, who do you think would be the best candidate of the centre-left and left parties?" There were two options, Bachelet and Boric.
| Answer | National total | Identify with the left or centre-left |
|---|---|---|
| Michelle Bachelet | 41% | 47% |
| Gabriel Boric | 24% | 44% |
| No answer | 35% | 9% |
The figures are in the Cadem report. The 17-point national lead is largely explained by people outside the camp: more than a third of the total chose neither. Among the voters who would have to decide a possible primary, the race is open.
Who leads the left today
A second question was not about candidacies but about leadership: "Who do you think is the main leader of the centre-left and left parties today?" More names appear there.
| Figure | National total | Identify with the left or centre-left |
|---|---|---|
| Michelle Bachelet | 29% | 34% |
| Gabriel Boric | 19% | 32% |
| Tomás Vodanovic | 13% | 8% |
| Jeannette Jara | 8% | 10% |
| Camila Vallejo | 6% | 6% |
| Paulina Vodanovic | 5% | 0% |
| Carolina Tohá | 1% | 1% |
| Other | 5% | 2% |
| No answer | 14% | 7% |
The pattern repeats: Bachelet comes first, but within the camp the gap with Boric is two points. The mayor of Maipú, Tomás Vodanovic, carries more weight in the country as a whole than among left-wing voters themselves.
Why the poll comes now
On 7 October, in an interview with TVU, the University of Concepción's channel, Bachelet was asked whether there is "no second without a third", a Chilean saying. She replied: "I think so." And she added a condition: "I am going to try; whether the parties want it or not is another matter," as reported by El Mostrador. No candidacy has been announced, and the presidential election is in 2029.
The statement came weeks after she withdrew her bid for Secretary-General of the United Nations. The effect shows in another question in the survey: Bachelet was the figure of the week for 37% of respondents, ahead of President José Antonio Kast (16%).
How each figure is rated
| Figure | Know them | Positive image among those who know them |
|---|---|---|
| Tomás Vodanovic | 87% | 60% |
| Sebastián Sichel | 86% | 59% |
| Evelyn Matthei | 97% | 59% |
| Macarena Ripamonti | 82% | 56% |
| Jaime Bellolio | 65% | 53% |
| Matías Toledo | 56% | 52% |
| Michelle Bachelet | 96% | 51% |
| Gabriel Boric | 95% | 47% |
Bachelet and Boric are almost universally known, but they do not top the image ranking: six figures sit above Bachelet, most of them mayors. Cadem warns that it changed the way it measures image in October, so these figures are not comparable with those of previous months.
Kast's approval and the national mood
| Indicator | Figure |
|---|---|
| Approve of President Kast's performance | 32% |
| Disapprove | 64% |
| Believe the country is on the wrong track | 64% |
| Say they are pessimistic about the country's future | 64% |
| Believe the economy is stagnant or going backwards | 84% |
| Rate employment as bad or very bad | 92% |
Presidential approval holds at 32%, the lowest level since Kast took office in March, and disapproval fell one point from the previous reading, which had hit 65%. The mood and economy figures are those summarised by El Dínamo from the same report. The employment figure matches the official data: see the ranking of unemployment in Chile, which is at its highest level in more than five years.
The Las Condes mudslide
The survey was taken the day after the 8 October mudslide in Las Condes, a district of Santiago. 51% believe it could have been avoided if the authorities had acted in advance, and 45% that it was an exceptional situation caused by the amount of rain and the El Niño phenomenon. The government's handling of the emergency is approved by 40% and disapproved by 51%; the fire brigade's, by contrast, has 93% approval. 82% think Chile is poorly prepared or not prepared at all to face the effects of El Niño.
How to read this poll
- It is an online quota survey. 1,001 cases, taken on Friday 9 October through Cadem's web panel. The sample is not probabilistic, so it has no statistical margin of error in the strict sense.
- The candidacy question offered only two names. It does not measure Bachelet against other figures in her camp, or against right-wing candidates.
- A 3-point difference is not a clear lead. Among those who identify with the left, 47% versus 44% is, in practice, a tie.
- It is three years away. The presidential election is in 2029 and no candidacy has been registered. Polls at this distance measure name recognition and recall more than voting intention.
For the economic context behind these figures, see where inflation in Chile stands and how much the president of Chile earns.
Frequently asked questions
What does the Cadem poll say about Bachelet?
That 41% consider her the best presidential candidate of the centre-left and left, against 24% for Gabriel Boric. Among those who identify with that camp, 47% versus 44%.
Is Bachelet a presidential candidate?
No candidacy has been announced. On 7 October 2026 she said "I think so" when asked about a third run, and made it conditional on what the parties decide.
What is President Kast's approval rating?
32% approval and 64% disapproval in the Cadem poll for the second week of October 2026.
When is Chile's next presidential election?
In 2029.
