What is at stake for Mexico in the US midterm elections

Mexico reaches the US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, without the trade deal it hoped to close before the vote. President Claudia Sheinbaum said on October 28 that her government was still talking to Washington "to see if it is feasible to reach an agreement before the elections," and that talks will continue whatever the outcome, according to El Economista. No deal had been announced at the time of publication.

What is at stake for Mexico goes beyond trade: it includes remittances, migration and security cooperation. These are the open fronts and what the analyses published on the eve of the vote say.

The trade deal Mexico wanted before the midterm elections

Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard spoke with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Mexico's priority is a "significant reduction in the so-called 232 tariffs," the section of US trade law used to impose 25% tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum, Sheinbaum said, as quoted by Por Esto.

According to the president, the talks resolved almost all US complaints about non-tariff barriers, but there is no understanding on tariffs. "President Trump has said 'we are about to,' then he says 'no,' but he is also campaigning," she said. About 80% of Mexican exports go to the United States, El Economista noted.

The USMCA and the annual review that follows the midterm elections

In July 2026 the United States refused to extend the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement for 16 years, which triggered the annual review mechanism for 2027-2036. Pending issues rose from 54 to 94, according to a report by the consultancy Integralia cited by El Economista. Points of tension include automotive rules of origin, inputs from outside the region, steel and aluminum traceability, electronic components and China's role in supply chains.

Integralia expects the agreement to stay in force, though with uncertainty over its terms, and the talks to follow their own course regardless of who wins, according to the summary by Diario de Yucatán. Security was added to the trade table in the first and third formal rounds, which lets Washington link its demands on organized crime to tariffs.

What changes for Mexico if Democrats win Congress

Integralia's main conclusion is that "the midterm elections will change the checks on Trump, but not necessarily reduce the pressure on Mexico." A Congress with a Democratic majority in one or both chambers could step up investigations into the administration, but the president could turn even more to foreign policy to build his legacy, El Economista explained.

Fighting drug trafficking is one of the few issues with support from both parties in Washington, so it could gain prominence under any Congress, the consultancy warned.

Mexico in the campaign: fewer mentions than in 2024

Mexico is no longer the favorite target of the Republican campaign. Mentions of the country in Republican candidates' campaign documents fell from 241 in 2024 to 51 in 2026, a drop of almost 79%, according to an analysis by Agencia Reforma using data from the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara, cited by El Imparcial. Iran now tops the list, with 124 references.

Andrew Rudman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said it is hard for Trump to cast Mexico as a border threat while touting results on migration control. Sheinbaum had asked in September that Mexico not be used in the campaign: "Mexico does not have to be an argument in the United States election," she said, according to Milenio.

Latino voters in the states that look to Mexico

The Latino vote carries more weight in states along the border with Mexico. According to the Pew Research Center, cited by Univision, these were the Latino citizens eligible to vote in 2024 in the states where that community weighs most, which also elect a governor on Tuesday:

These are people eligible to vote, not necessarily registered or voting. In Pew's October 16 survey, 86% of registered Latino voters said the economy is very important to their vote, 80% health care, 75% education and 64% immigration.

Remittances: the other pocket Mexico is watching

Between January and August 2026 Mexico received US$41,801.8 million in remittances, 2.2% more than in the same period of 2025, although in August they fell 3.6% year on year to US$5,452 million, according to Bank of Mexico figures cited by Por Esto. The number of transfers fell 2.2%, but the average amount rose from US$391 to US$409.

Since 2026, cash transfers from the United States pay a 1% tax, which has already changed how people send remittances, according to El Economista. The Bank of Mexico publishes September figures this week and announces its interest rate decision on Thursday, November 5, El Economista reported. More context in the ranking of remittances in Latin America and in Mexico's September exports.

Mexico will hold its own midterm elections in June 2027, when the Chamber of Deputies will also be renewed.

Frequently asked questions

No. None had been announced by November 3. Sheinbaum said on October 28 that talks will continue under any outcome.

The Section 232 tariffs: 25% on cars, steel and aluminum.

It remains in force, but since July 2026, when the United States did not accept a 16-year extension, it is subject to annual reviews between 2027 and 2036.

According to Integralia, the checks on Trump would change, but not necessarily the pressure on Mexico over trade, security and migration.