Argentina's country risk closed at 648 basis points on Friday, October 16, 2026, its highest level since October 2, according to the JP Morgan index published by Rava Bursátil and cited by [Agencia Nova](https://www.agencianova.com/economia-y-empresas/2026/10/16/174015/con-el-presidemente-milei-el-riesgo-pais-volvio-a-subir-y-alcanzo-648-puntos/). The indicator rose more than 4% on the day and has gained 75 points since October 6, when it stood at 573. In June, by contrast, it had dipped below 400 points at times, a low not seen since 2018.
The rise coincided with a speech by President Javier Milei at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington, where he said country risk "keeps falling day by day". Here is what this indicator is, how to read it and why it went up again.
What Argentina's country risk is and how it is measured
Country risk is the gap between the yield on a country's dollar bonds and the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds, which are considered the safest. It is expressed in basis points: 100 points equal one percentage point. The most cited index is the EMBI produced by JP Morgan.
| Country risk | Spread over U.S. bonds | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| 100 points | 1 percentage point | Very low: debt of investment-grade countries |
| 400 points | 4 percentage points | Moderate: debt can be issued, though expensively |
| 648 points (October 16) | 6.48 percentage points | High: makes it hard to return to international markets |
| 1,000 points or more | 10 percentage points or more | Very high: markets see a serious risk of default |
In practice, if a U.S. Treasury bond yields 5% a year, at 648 points Argentina would have to offer around 11.5% to place dollar debt at a similar maturity. The daily value can be followed on Rava.
How Argentina's country risk has changed in 2026
| Date | Country risk | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Late January | Below 500 points | First time under 500 since 2018 | Diario de Cuyo |
| June | About 430, at times below 400 | Lowest since 2018, after S&P upgraded the rating from CCC+ to B- | El Economista |
| October 2 | 655 points | Recent high | Agencia Nova |
| October 6 | 573 points | Starting point of the latest rise | Agencia Nova |
| October 15 | 640 points | Dollar bonds fall 0.7% on average | Infobae |
| October 16 | 648 points | Up more than 4% on the day; bonds fall 1.5% | Agencia Nova |
According to El Economista, in June S&P raised Argentina's sovereign rating from CCC+ to B-, after a Fitch upgrade in May, and country risk touched levels not seen since 2018. From mid-July the trend reversed. The October 16 close varies slightly by source: some media report 641 points for the same day because they use their own calculations rather than JP Morgan's official index.
Why Argentina's country risk is rising
Analysts point to a mix of local and external factors:
- 2027 elections: uncertainty about whether the economic program will continue in a polarized scenario. "That uncertainty generates volatility; we expect country risk to rise again", Mariano Flores Vidal of Hyperion told El Economista. He sees 600 points as a floor.
- High global rates: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield topped 5.3% and ended the previous week at 5.2%, making debt more expensive for all emerging markets.
- Argentina-specific factors: according to Morgan Stanley, Argentine bond yields rose about 300 basis points between mid-July and late September due to country-specific risk premiums, not general emerging-market weakness.
- Weak activity: the IMF cut its forecast for Argentina's 2026 growth to 2.1%, and Milei acknowledged two consecutive quarters of contraction, though he ruled out calling it a recession, according to Infobae.
- 2027 financing: Emiliano Anselmi of PPI warned that "the cost of sovereign financing remains high" and that the 2027 financing program still faces challenges.
What Milei said about country risk
In Washington, Milei said the indicator "keeps falling day by day", that it was "around three thousand basis points" when he took office and that the government "will honor our debts at all times". According to Infobae, on that same October 15, country risk was climbing to 640 points, its highest since October 2. The comparison with when Milei took office holds as a trend: country risk is far below 2023 levels. The claim that it falls day by day does not match October's data.
What it means for people
| Effect | Why it happens |
|---|---|
| More expensive credit for companies and provinces | Dollar rates for all Argentine issuers usually take sovereign debt as a benchmark |
| Harder to issue debt abroad again | Above 600 points, placing bonds is expensive for the Treasury |
| Pressure on reserves | Without financing, maturities are paid with own dollars; gross reserves exceeded US$50 billion, according to Agencia Nova |
| Signal for investors | Rising country risk usually comes with falling stocks and bonds |
Morgan Stanley remains positive on Argentine dollar bonds and expects a decline of about 100 basis points in the coming months, conditional on better data on consumption, activity, inflation and real wages. Price trends are in inflation in Argentina year by year and the cost of living in the September basic basket.
Frequently asked questions
What is Argentina's country risk today?
It closed at 648 points on Friday, October 16, 2026, according to JP Morgan's index published by Rava. Some media report 641 using their own calculations.
What does 648 points of country risk mean?
That Argentine dollar bonds yield 6.48 percentage points more than U.S. Treasury bonds.
What was the 2026 low?
In June it hovered around 430 points, at times below 400, the lowest since 2018.
Who calculates country risk?
JP Morgan, with its EMBI index.
Why is it rising?
Because of uncertainty over the 2027 elections, high U.S. rates, weak activity and doubts about 2027 financing.
