Peru's ENFEN committee kept its "Coastal El Niño Alert" in official statement No. 18-2026 of Friday 16 October and forecasts that ocean warming off Peru will reach extraordinary magnitude until January 2027 and strong magnitude until early autumn that year, according to [Exitosa](https://www.exitosanoticias.pe/actualidad/fenomeno-nino-enfen-mantiene-alerta-pronostico-magnitud-extraordinaria-otono-2027-n186142) and [Infobae](https://www.infobae.com/peru/2026/10/17/el-nino-costero-se-extenderia-hasta-el-otono-de-2027-segun-el-ultimo-reporte-del-enfen/). It is the highest category on the committee's scale.
Sea temperatures off the Peruvian coast have been 5 to 6 °C above normal since April, the head of the Senamhi weather service, Grinia Ávalos, told RPP. Here is what ENFEN forecasts for rain, rivers, temperatures and water reserves, and which regions are most exposed.
What ENFEN's statement says about the coastal El Niño
| Point in the statement | ENFEN forecast |
|---|---|
| Status | Coastal El Niño Alert |
| Magnitude until January 2027 | Extraordinary |
| Magnitude until early autumn 2027 | Strong |
| El Niño in the central Pacific | Very strong warming until February 2027 |
| Air temperature on the coast | Well above normal, with a likelihood of new records |
| Next statement | Thursday 30 October 2026 |
The National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN) is the multi-sector committee that monitors the phenomenon; its technical secretariat is at the Peruvian Marine Institute, and its statements are published on the ENFEN website. The June statement forecast a strong magnitude until October: the outlook has worsened in recent months.
Which regions of Peru will get more rain from the coastal El Niño
For the rest of 2026 and the summer of 2027, ENFEN forecasts above-normal rain on the northern coast, central coast and western northern highlands, with localized moderate-to-strong episodes in the north. Ávalos told RPP that the rain would also affect the central coast, including Lima, and that January, February and March, "which is the rainfall peak", would fall within an event of strong to extraordinary magnitude.
| Area | Expected rainfall (summer 2027) |
|---|---|
| Northern coast (Tumbes, Piura, Lambayeque) | Above normal |
| Central coast (including Lima) | Above normal |
| Western northern highlands | Above normal |
| Southern and central-eastern highlands | Normal or below normal |
| Central and southern Amazon | Normal or below normal |
A first pulse of rain already hit between 24 and 27 September, with readings of 70 millimeters, and Senamhi expects another significant pulse in Tumbes and Piura in late October.
Rivers that could overflow
| Rivers | Expected flow |
|---|---|
| Tumbes, Chira, Piura, La Leche and Jequetepeque | Above normal from November |
| Rímac and Chillón (Lima) | Above normal from December |
| Ica | Normal to above normal |
| Arequipa, Moquegua and Tacna | Normal or below normal |
| Ucayali, Huallaga, Apurímac and Vilcanota | Below normal |
Ávalos told RPP that rivers could overflow in December. The risk is highest in the Piura river basin, which runs through the city under the Bolognesi bridge, and in the Tumbes and Lambayeque valleys, the areas hit hardest in past events.
Drought in the south and water reserves
The phenomenon does not bring rain to the whole country. ENFEN forecasts a rainfall deficit in the southern highlands, central-eastern highlands and central and southern Amazon, and warns that Lake Titicaca's tributaries and the lake level remain below normal. The main reservoirs are at 58% of national capacity, with Tinajones (Lambayeque) and Paucarani (Tacna) at very low levels for the season. If the highland rainfall deficit materializes, water rationing for various uses could be applied, according to the statement cited by Exitosa.
Why an extraordinary magnitude is a concern
ENFEN classifies coastal El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong and extraordinary, depending on how much the sea off the coast warms. Extraordinary events are the ones that in the past caused the most damage from rain and flooding in the north of the country, which is why the committee recommends that authorities plan risk scenarios using weather warnings and seasonal forecasts. The statement calls for preparing for three fronts at once: the coastal El Niño, the 2026-2027 equatorial Pacific El Niño and the October 2026 to April 2027 rainy season.
Heat is also a risk: ENFEN forecasts air temperatures well above normal along the whole coast, with a high likelihood of new records, and warns that abnormal heat and rainfall surpluses or deficits can affect crops.
The coastal El Niño, fishing and the economy
Warmer waters change the distribution of fish. ENFEN reported that anchovy is in its juvenile phase, close to the coast and deeper than usual, and that good availability of bonito, perico, skipjack, frigate tuna and yellowfin tuna is expected. For the economy, an event of this magnitude can affect industrial fishing, agriculture in the north and road infrastructure. Keiko Fujimori's government requested legislative powers to deal with El Niño and insecurity, a request the Senate must resolve (see the legislative powers).
How to prepare
- Follow official warnings from Senamhi and Indeci, and ENFEN's next statement on 30 October.
- Clean roofs, gutters and drains before the rainy season, especially on the northern coast.
- Identify evacuation routes if you live near ravines or riverbanks.
- Protect yourself from the heat: ENFEN forecasts record temperatures on the coast.
Frequently asked questions
What does an extraordinary coastal El Niño mean?
It is the highest magnitude category ENFEN uses for ocean warming off the Peruvian coast. The 16 October statement forecasts it until January 2027.
How long will the coastal El Niño last?
According to ENFEN, it would be extraordinary until January 2027 and strong until early autumn 2027.
Will it rain in Lima because of El Niño?
ENFEN forecasts above-normal rain on the central coast, including Lima, during the summer of 2027, and high flows in the Rímac and Chillón rivers from December.
When is ENFEN's next statement?
Thursday 30 October 2026.
