Mexico's National Weather Service (SMN) forecasts 8 cold fronts in November 2026 and 56 for the whole 2026-2027 season, which runs from September to May, above the average of about 50 systems per season, according to the forecast presented by its general coordinator, Fabián Vázquez Romaña, as reported by El Financiero. December would be the month with the most fronts (9), and 32 of the 56 would arrive between November and February.
This Monday, November 9, cold front No. 4 remains stationary over the east of the country and is interacting with a low-pressure trough, bringing 25 to 50 millimeters of rain to Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Oaxaca and Chiapas, according to the SMN forecast cited by Récord. Frost of -5 to 0 °C is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday in the mountains of Chihuahua and Durango. This guide covers how many cold fronts will reach Mexico in November, which states they affect and what El Niño has to do with it.
View the data as a table
| Cold fronts in the season | 56 |
| Expected in November | 8 |
| In December, the peak month | 9 |
| Peak rain expected from front No. 4 | 150 mm |
How many cold fronts will reach Mexico in November 2026
The season forecast, released in early September, splits the 56 systems by month. November, with 8, is the third most active month after December (9) and ties with January. September (3) and May (2) open and close the season, when fronts are weaker and less frequent.
| Month | Cold fronts forecast |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | 3 |
| October | 7 |
| November | 8 |
| December | 9 |
| January 2027 | 8 |
| February | 7 |
| March | 6 |
| April | 6 |
| May | 2 |
| Total 2026-2027 season | 56 |
Source: SMN (Conagua), according to El Financiero and SDP Noticias. The months add up to 56. It is not the only estimate: Mexico's Navy (Semar) expects 7 fronts in November and 53 for the season, according to Maya Comunicación.
The cumulative total shows the expected pace: by the end of November 18 fronts would have passed, and by the end of January 35, more than half the season. In practice, the SMN's numbering stood at cold front No. 4 on November 9, below the 10 the forecast expected for September and October, so the actual pace has so far been slower than forecast.
View the data as a table
| Forecast cumulative total | |
|---|---|
| Sep | 3 |
| Oct | 10 |
| Nov | 18 |
| Dec | 27 |
| Jan | 35 |
| Feb | 42 |
| Mar | 48 |
| Apr | 54 |
| May | 56 |
Cold front No. 4: which states it affects this week
Cold front No. 4 reached the northeast in early November and on Friday the 6th was reinforced by a cold air mass. Saturday the 7th brought the greatest risk: 75 to 150 millimeters of rain in northeastern Coahuila, northern Nuevo León and northwestern Tamaulipas, with possible flooding, landslides and rising rivers, according to the SMN as cited by Infobae. Gusts of 50 to 70 km/h were also expected that day in the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec, with waves of 2 to 3 meters.
For this Monday, the 9th, the SMN expects rain in the north, center, south and southeast and on the Yucatán Peninsula. Each state can be searched in the table:
| Nuevo León | 25 | 50 |
| Tamaulipas | 25 | 50 |
| Veracruz | 25 | 50 |
| Oaxaca | 25 | 50 |
| Chiapas | 25 | 50 |
| Ciudad de México | 5 | 25 |
| Estado de México | 5 | 25 |
| Puebla | 5 | 25 |
| Hidalgo | 5 | 25 |
| Jalisco | 5 | 25 |
| Michoacán | 5 | 25 |
| Guerrero | 5 | 25 |
| Tabasco | 5 | 25 |
| Campeche | 5 | 25 |
| Yucatán | 5 | 25 |
| Quintana Roo | 5 | 25 |
| Rain forecast (Monday 9th) | States |
|---|---|
| 25 to 50 mm (very heavy) | Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Oaxaca and Chiapas |
| 5 to 25 mm (showers) | Mexico City, State of Mexico, Puebla, Hidalgo, Jalisco, Michoacán, Guerrero, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo |
Source: SMN, forecast for November 9, according to Récord. The same forecast expects gusts of 40 to 60 km/h on the Tamaulipas coast and in the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Frost and sub-zero temperatures from November's cold fronts
The sharpest temperature drop is concentrated in high areas, not in state capitals. The SMN's extended forecast for the second week of November is as follows:
- Nov. 7Rain of up to 150 mmNortheastern Coahuila, northern Nuevo León and northwestern Tamaulipas.
- Nov. 9The front stalls over the east25 to 50 mm in Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Oaxaca and Chiapas.
- Nov. 10-11Frost of -5 to 0 °CChihuahua and Durango mountains; on the 11th, 50 to 75 mm of rain in Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí and Veracruz.
- Nov. 12Cold in Baja CaliforniaLows of -5 to 0 °C, according to the extended forecast.
- Nov. 13Cold continues in the northChihuahua and Durango, depending on how the system evolves.
| Day | Minimum temperature | Areas |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday 10 and Wednesday 11 | -5 to 0 °C | Mountain areas of Chihuahua and Durango |
| Wednesday 11 | 0 to 5 °C | High areas of Baja California, Sonora, Zacatecas, State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz and Oaxaca |
| Thursday 12 | -5 to 0 °C | Baja California |
| Friday 13 | Intense cold | Chihuahua and Durango, depending on how the system evolves |
Source: SMN, according to Récord. In Mexico City the cold is felt mostly before dawn, with afternoons that can be mild; hard frosts are concentrated in the mountains of the State of Mexico and neighboring states, according to Maya Comunicación.
Why there will be more cold fronts: the role of El Niño
The SMN linked the season to an El Niño event expected to strengthen and peak in the last quarter of 2026. According to El Financiero, the agency said El Niño will lower temperatures and "favor snowfall" in northern Mexico, and that the fronts will overlap with the rainy season. The same phenomenon has Peru on alert; see what ENFEN says about the coastal El Niño.
A cold front is the leading edge of a cold air mass moving down from the north and pushing out warmer air. It brings rain, northerly winds (the "norte" in the Gulf of Mexico) and a drop in temperature. A forecast of 56 does not mean all of them will be equally strong or that it will be cold all the time: each front's path and effects are only known as it approaches.
| Term | What it means |
|---|---|
| Cold front | Leading edge of a cold air mass that advances and displaces warm air |
| Polar air mass | Cold, dry air arriving behind the front that lowers temperatures |
| "Norte" event | Strong northerly wind in the Gulf of Mexico and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec |
| Stationary front | A front that stops advancing and keeps rain over the same area |
Source: Vivarae News, based on general meteorology definitions. For current warnings and alerts, the reference is the SMN website.
What to do during cold fronts
- Check SMN and Civil Protection warnings before road trips, especially in the northeast and in mountain areas.
- Dress in layers before dawn and protect children, older adults and people with respiratory illnesses.
- Do not use charcoal stoves or braziers indoors: carbon monoxide causes many poisonings during the cold season.
- In the northeast and along the Gulf, avoid crossing swollen rivers or streams during heavy rain.
Meanwhile, the country faces social protests this week: IMSS workers march in Mexico City this Monday.
Frequently asked questions
How many cold fronts will there be in November 2026?
Eight, according to the SMN forecast. The Navy (Semar) estimates seven.
How many cold fronts will there be in the 2026-2027 season?
56 according to the SMN, more than the average of about 50. Semar estimates 53.
Which month will have the most cold fronts?
December, with 9. Between November and February, 32 of the 56 would arrive.
Which cold front is active today?
As of November 9, cold front No. 4, stationary over the east of the country, according to the SMN.
Where will there be frost this week?
In the mountains of Chihuahua and Durango, with lows of -5 to 0 °C on Tuesday the 10th and Wednesday the 11th, and in Baja California on Thursday the 12th.
